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OTM Rumble Week 1 Preview and Strategy
Jon HayesSep. 07, 2022, 1:54 p.m.

At long last, Football has arrived, and with it comes OTM’s brand-new, free-to-enter weekly game, Rumble. If you’re new to Own the Moment or need a little refresher, players will create their Rumble Roster based on their NFL ALL DAY collection, score points according to on-the-field action, and compete for Dapper balance each week.

PLAY RUMBLE


In this article, we’re going to focus on the wrinkles that differentiate Rumble from other daily fantasy sports (DFS) contests, tools at your disposal for roster construction, and strategic consideration as we head into Week 1. If you’re looking to get better acquainted with the rules and scoring system for Rumble, check out this article.

Rumble Basics

Each week, OTM will be giving away $10,000 in Dapper balance, including $1,500 to the victor. This means that a firm grasp Rumble’s nuances could be the difference between bringing home some serious cash and just missing the cut. Like other DFS competitions, the general idea is simple: construct a roster that scores more points than anyone else and bask in the spoils of victory. In Rumble, your roster consists of 8 roster spots:

1 QB

2 RB

2 WR

1 TE

1 FLEX (RB/WR/TE)

1 DST+

Lastly, Rumble is a single entry contest, with a max of one entry per user, so choose your rosters wisely.

Rumble Wrinkle

The big Rumble Wrinkle is the lock time for weekly contests, which will occur at 1PM ET each Sunday. This means that Thursday games (and the occasional Saturday/Sunday morning games in London) will already be in the books before the contest starts, creating an interesting strategic opportunity. In Week 1, Buffalo and Los Angeles face off on Thursday, boasting an impressive 52.5 point total according to most books, implying a shootout. Now, imagine that you have Josh Allen in your ALL DAY collection, and he posts a respectable but not earth-shattering 25 points at the QB position, but you also have Patrick Mahomes in your collection. Do you take the 25 points or go for broke by rolling the dice? 

Not only does this wrinkle impact your ALL DAY roster construction, but it could also impact the ALL DAY market itself, becoming a game within a game. Players like Isaiah McKenzie, Devin Singletary, Dawson Knox, and Tyler Higbee all have ALL DAY Moments going in the single digits and could be viable roster options in Week 1. Perhaps more importantly, their downside risk is mitigated due to their low initial price point, so if they bust you could likely re-sell the Moments and recoup most or all of the initial investment, and if they hit you could either play them in your Week 1 Rumble Roster or capitalize on the spike in the market.

Rumble Hero

Did you pull a Rare or Legendary Moment during a drop, or snag one on the Marketplace? You’re in luck, as these Moments will carry a 1.25x valuation compared to their Common Moment counterparts. For example, if Mark Andrews puts up 20 points but you play his Rare or Legendary Moment, you’ll receive 25 points. You’re only able to designate one Hero per week, so choose wisely if you have one (and don’t worry if you don’t, the preseason Week 3 champion didn’t play one at all!).

Understanding DST+

Another important wrinkle to understand in Rumble is the DST+ position. Any Moment that does not fall into the QB, RB, WR, or TE position is eligible for the DST+ slot. This roster spot will receive points based on the team listed in the Moment according to the following DST+ scoring system:

For DST+, the position in the Moment does not matter. Let’s take an example from a game with one of largest lines in Week 1: Broncos (-6.5) @ Seahawks. Both Broncos Kicker, Brendan McManus, and Defensive Lineman, Dre’Mont Jones, have Common 10K Moments. Let’s say the Broncos beat the Seahawks, accumulating the following stats:

  • 3 sacks
  • 2 interceptions
  • 1 fumble recovery
  • 17 points allowed

No matter whether you play McManus or Jones, you would then receive: 3 points for the sacks + 4 points for the interceptions + 2 points for the fumble recovery + 1 point for points allowed + 3 points for the team win = 13 points for the Denver DST+ position. This means that Moments for offensive linemen, kickers, punters etc., could have significant value depending on the matchup, and may be available for a low cost on the Marketplace.

Strategy, Strategy, Strategy

If you’re new to the idea of weekly contests, there are a few very important strategic insights that should be considered when constructing a roster. Unlike platforms like FanDuel or DraftKings, where each submission has a specific salary cap that cannot be exceeded, Rumble Rosters are wide open. Not only does this allow for more variance in roster construction, but it also allows players to use Moments that vary wildly in terms of market value – another variable that will be very interesting to track. Additionally, roster construction is obviously tied to which players have Moments on ALL DAY, so highly sought after 2022 rookies are currently not available until they’re included in a drop, along with vets that don’t yet have a Moment. 

To date, Week 1 already has more than 5,500 entries, so roster differentiation will be important. Identifying these opportunities will be key, because you not only need your entire roster to produce, but you also need to make tough judgment calls on which studs to fade and which lesser used players have an opportunity for a spike week due to matchup or breakout potential. 

If you’re looking to capitalize on Marketplace inefficiencies and put together a deep collection, the OTM Market tool can help get you started, allowing you to sort by player, price, rarity tier and more. A player’s overall budget will predictably be a major consideration, but players with smaller discretionary budgets will absolutely be able to compete. Leveraging over/under and implied point totals along with exploiting matchups will be key to maximizing efficiency in Rumble.

Week 1 Considerations

The sheer volume of information that will be coming your way in the lead up to Week 1 will be astronomical, so there will be no shortage of information on start em’ and sit em’ strategies. That said, we’re going to highlight some of our favorite Moments that are available for $15 or less. In most cases, these will be Moments that could be playable both in Week 1 and throughout the duration of the year. 

QB:

  • Matthew Stafford, $12 (one of the cheapest QBs in the league and has the Thursday game this week in what could be a shootout)

RB:

WR:

TE:

DST+:

Plenty of other top 10 options can be grabbed for slightly higher values, like Cooper Kupp at $22, Travis Kelce at $25, Jonathan Taylor at $30, Christian McCaffery at $40, Ja’Marr Chase at $41, and Josh Allen at $43 to name a few. If you’re more of a high roller, Rare and Legendary options are on the table, but you’ll need to determine if the 25% bonus is worth the significantly higher low asking price, assuming you don’t already have these assets in your collection. 

Interestingly, some players will cost a serious premium due to overall market scarcity compared to other players, i.e. Justin Jefferson only has two Moments, a Common and a Legendary, with a total circulation between the two of only 10,059. Meanwhile, because of Cincinnati’s Super Bowl run last year, Ja’Marr Chase has six Moments in total across rarity tiers, with a total circulation of 22,148. As a result, Chase’s low as is $41 for a Common, whereas Jefferson’s low ask is a much steeper $75. While Jefferson’s low ask is almost double, playing his Moment could reap rewards, as some entrants may shy away from the steeper price tag if they need to purchase a Moment, coupled with the scarcity factor – Jefferson’s total circulation is just 45% of Chase’s. 

If you’re really looking to get into the weeds and embrace the game theory, OTM also shows you the quantity of each Moment that is currently owned and in circulation, how many remain in packs, how many have been minted but not released yet, and how many unique owners a Moment has, a potentially valuable tidbit of information since Rumble is a single-entry contest.

We know we’re just kicking things off, but it’s never too early to dig deep into the data to find that edge!

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