Earlier this week, we posted a Week 1 Rumble preview, touching on the nuances of the game, Marketplace deals, and the famous OTM wrinkle, the Thursday night game. As a reminder, contests won’t lock until Sunday at 1PM ET, providing a unique roster construction variable, while simultaneously allowing players to strategically play the NFL ALL DAY market itself. “Buy the rumor, sell the news” might be thrown around on Wall Street, but applies here as well. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the studs and duds from last night’s contest in Los Angeles.
Bills Assert Their Dominance, Rams Have Super Bowl Hangover
Going into the Thursday night game, we called out some potentially attractive low-cost options that could be used strategically for Week 1, and also had season-long upside. The players we highlighted, Isaiah McKenzie, Devin Singletary, Dawson Knox, and Tyler Higbee, all had “buy low” spike week value, which was bolstered by the TNF wrinkle coupled with a low initial floor, meaning that worst case scenario, the value could only depreciate so much – in this case, a few dollars. In the event this low risk move hit, market values could rise significantly, and the player would be a viable play in your Rumble Roster.
When it was all said and done, the Bills laid a healthy beatdown on the defending Super Bowl champions, culminating with the Rams having to use a silent count at home. Yikes. Matt Stafford invoked the ghost of Chad Pennington, refusing to throw the ball down field despite Los Angeles needing to mount a large comeback. Cooper Kupp was predictably spectacular, but the rest of the offense looked badly out of sync and uninspired. The Allen Robinson hype-train was thoroughly derailed, and the reemergence party was put on ice, while Cam Akers played second fiddle to Darrell Henderson in the backfield, giving credence to the concerns that no player has ever returned to form after a devastating Achilles injury. Tyler Higbee was actually heavily targeted, ending with a solid 11 balls heading his way, but he looked slow and clumsy all night, dropping several balls including one that appeared to hit him square in the face, a perfect synopsis for the Rams’ night.
For Buffalo, Josh Allen showed why he’s got a legitimate chance at the MVP. Allen was great throughout the night, despite two bad luck interceptions that were both that fault of his receivers. After a slow first half on the ground, Allen asserted his physical dominance, racking up 56 yards on the ground, punctuating his performance with a Derrick Henry-esque stiff arm. Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis both had strong nights, the former capping Buffalo’s night with a long TD, burning Los Angeles’ Jalen Ramsey, who had a night to forget. Diggs ended with 122 yards and a TD, while Davis ended with 88 yards and a score. Meanwhile, Devin Singletary looked great in limited usage, running downhill and averaging 6 YPC. He finished with 48 yards on the ground and 14 through the air, and while he won’t be viable for Week 1, he looked solid, while both Zach Moss and James Cook turned the ball over. Isaiah McKenzie scored a TD but was used sparingly, and Dawson Knox was non-existent – both will be faded for this week. Lastly, the Bills defense was dominant, with former Ram Von Miller leading the way with two sacks. Buffalo got to Stafford seven times, while picking off the beleaguered QB on three occasions and only ceding 10 points.
Rumble Roster Considerations
So how does this impact your Rumble Roster construction? In most cases, the answer is pretty clear cut.
Fades
Players like Robinson, Akers, Henderson, McKenzie, Higbee, and Knox are obvious fades and should not be played. While McKenzie did score on a short slant in the 3rd quarter, he only finished with 19 yards. Gabe Davis looked great in limited usage and seemed poised for a huge night, but he finished as the 3rd highest scoring WR on the slate, meaning he shouldn’t be used this week.
Coin Flips
There are really only two coin flips here, Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen. Both had strong games – Diggs’ late TD put both players into usage consideration. His 8/122/1 clip gives him a total of 26.2 points (8 + 12.2 + 6), putting him right on the cusp. Getting 25+ points from a receiver is great, but the question now is whether players will want to take the known commodity or bet on a smash game elsewhere. Meanwhile, Allen caught fire in the 2nd half, finishing with 3 passing TDs and another on the ground. He’ll finish with 33.48 points, which could absolutely propel him to the top of the leaderboard, but players will be faced with the same conundrum as Diggs, especially with some potential shootouts on the horizon this Sunday.
Locked In
We’ve only got two slots locked in from the TNF – Cooper Kupp, and Buffalo DST+. If you need a Mr. Reliable, it’s hard to find a better player than Kupp, who has finished with at least 5 receptions and 50 yards in 19 straight games. In other words, his absolute floor over the entire past year has been 10 points, which is simply unheard of. Last night, he finished with 13/128/1, for 31.8 points. Kupp’s propensity for catching short passes helped him rack up the receptions last night, and if Stafford truly is unable to throw downfield, it could mean Kupp receives an even higher target share, which was absurdly high to begin with. Lastly, the Buffalo DST+ position is locked in and has a great chance of finishing in a top 5 spot, hitting the trifecta of sacks, turnovers, and points allowed, making them a great play with 20 points.
Final Thoughts
Hopefully this will give players some insight into the game theory considerations to understand when constructing a Rumble Roster. With a full slate on Sunday, we’re extremely interested to see how things play out, which strategies work and which ones fall flat, along with market moves, both on the macro and micro level. We’d love to hear your thoughts on how to approach Rumble, so drop us a line on Twitter and Discord, and remember, rosters don’t lock until 1PM ET on Sunday, so there is plenty of time to join over 6,800 (and climbing) fellow competitors in the fun.