It’s Week 14 in the NFL, which means it’s the final bye week of the season. Last week was chock full of injuries once again, forcing the 49ers to hang their Super Bowl hopes on Brock Purdy, the ultimate Mr. Irrelevant. Taken with the last pick of the 2022 draft, the Niners hitched their wagon to the rookie the rest of the way after going for broke by acquiring Christian McCaffery, electing not to sign Baker Mayfield, who was mercifully cut by the Panthers earlier this week. It’s unclear if that says more about what the Niners think of Purdy or Mayfield, but we’ll find out. Meanwhile, Mayfield actually led a dramatic comeback against the hapless Raiders last night, though for Rumble purposes that game will be faded across the board.
Reactions to Last Week
We had a dominant victory in the Main Event last week, with “viketwins” taking down the top spot by a 15-point margin, by far the largest point differential between 1st and 2nd place in a Rumble slate this year. Much of the dominance was achieved with a stack you wouldn’t normally see, with both Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams making an appearance, while fellow Raider Derek Carr faded. Meanwhile, a naked Joe Burrow appeared, devoid of a stack with Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, or any other Bengal, making up one of the more interesting victorious lineups we’ve seen this season. Unlike Week 12, where Thanksgiving brought three Thursday games, Week 13’s matchup between the Bills and Patriots resulted in noticeably less fireworks, without there being any viable considerations for roster construction.
At QB, Jalen Hurts continued his spectacular season, lighting up the Titans in AJ Brown’s revenge game, taking home the QB1 honors. Burrow came in as the runner up, followed by Geno Smith (again!), Jared Goff, and Justin Fields. Cumulatively, the QB3 – QB5 made up just 4% of the total field’s ownership, largely because Patrick Mahomes, the QB6, was played in 32% of lineups.
Josh Jacobs finally started getting his due, and was the 3rd most played RB on the week, resulting in a symmetrical RB3 finish. But it was Christian McCaffery, played in the winning lineup as the Hero, who dominated the position, thanks largely to his 8/80/1 receiving line. Tony Pollard was the RB2 thanks to a ridiculous drubbing of the Colts, while Samaje Perine and D’Andre Swift, combined for less than 1% ownership across the tournament, rounded out the top 5. Notably, Austin Ekeler and Nick Chubb both busted with huge usage. Both had over 43% ownership but combined to score just 22.2 points, coming in as the RB12 and RB29, respectfully. Chubb’s bust was a particularly tough pill to swallow given the seemingly perfect smash spot, but Deshaun Watson’s terrible performance coupled with three Cleveland defensive TDs sunk Chubb.
WR was a strangely predictable week, where the top four slots, Davante Adams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, and Tyreek Hill all had ownership in the double digits. In fact, only A.J. Brown had less than a 19% share, a chalky week for a position that has been much more prone to surprises than its counterparts. Tyler Lockett rounded out the top five, narrowly edging his Seattle teammate, DK Metcalf. Interestingly, Stefon Diggs was played in over half the lineups last week despite a decent, but unspectacular TNF game against the Patriots. It’s the second week in a row where we saw the field lock in a solid but not great performance, giving some insight into the collective psyche of the competition. Diggs was the most played WR by a huge percentage, with Justin Jefferson coming in a full 21% below Diggs, turning in a disappointing WR14 performance.
The wasteland at TE claimed two new victims this week, with both Mark Andrews, and more importantly, Travis Kelce, absent from the top 5. The two made up a combined 65% ownership across the field, and while both were serviceable, putting up 8.6 and 9.4 points each, the were outshined by Greg Dulcich, who took home the TE1 slot, Noah Fant, Evan Engram, the Human Swiss Army Knife, Taysom Hill, and Cole Kmet. All in, the top 5 made up just 2% of the total ownership.
Much to Nick Chubb’s chagrin, Cleveland DST took home the top prize with a ridiculous 33 points thanks to three TDs, while Dallas, San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Denver rounded out the top 5.
Week 13
Like last week, the TNF game this week is a fade. Both Jacobs and Adams started off hot, but the Raiders faltered as they do so often, and no player topped 20 points, pulling all participants off the table. The clean slate means no one is going in with free squares, making this a particularly interesting week. Without even looking at the Vegas o/u, two games immediately jump out and will likely result in players with large ownership. The 5-7 Lions are favored against the 10-2 Vikings, a crazy spread given the circumstances, but indicative of what the oddsmakers think of my boy Kirky. Like most Lions games, this one has all the makings of a shootout, which likely means mainstays like Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown will be highly owned once again. But, it could also open the doors for D’Andre Swift and Dalvin Cook, both of whom had extremely low ownerships last week. For Swift, his usage has been trending upward, and fears of an ankle injury seem to have been allayed. TJ Hockenson also provides an interesting contrarian option, especially if you want to get contrarian against Andrews and Kelce.
If an NFC North showdown doesn’t tickle your fancy, expect plenty of action in the Miami – Los Angeles game Tyreek Hill and Austin Ekeler will likely be hot commodities once again, but it will be important to keep an eye on Jaylen Waddle’s health. Both QBs are also in play, and could provide intriguing alternatives against Patrick Mahomes, who could be in for a slog against the boring Broncos, or Jalen Hurts, who is on the road in what could be a surprisingly tight NFC East matchup with the Giants. Lower on the pecking order, the Jacksonville – Tennessee game offers some intrigue. Trevor Lawrence averted disaster, avoiding what looked like a gruesome injury. The Jaguars still got blown out by the Lions, but Lawrence should be in line to start again this week. Tennessee’s defense got torched last week by the Eagles, but these two teams have engaged in some memorable matches, mainly due to Derrick Henry’s dominance. In his last six games against the Jags, Henry has amassed 870 yards on the ground and 12 TDs, and for the first time in his career, he’s begun catching the ball out of the backfield.
Last Week’s Grades
Before we get into who we’re keeping an eye on this week, let’s take a look at our prognosticator last week:
Trevor Lawrence & Christian Kirk – The Jags got the doors blown off and while Kirk was decent, plenty of better options emerged. Grade: C
Justin Fields – Despite Chicago throwing the W away here and continuing to get owned by the Ayahuasca Shaman himself, Fields showed no adverse effects to the injury, coming in as the QB5. Grade: A-
Nick Chubb – Womp womp. He had 80 yards but didn’t get into the endzone and wasn’t needed with the defense dominating. Grade: D
Tee Higgins – Higgins had a TD, but only ended up with a 3/35/1 line, not good enough! Grade: C-
CeeDee Lamb – Lamb was solid, finishing with 5/71/1, but the Cowboys annihilated the Colts and the passing game was barely needed with Pollard and Zeke decimating the Colts D. Grade: B-
Plays to Consider
As always, we’re avoiding the obvious plays, because where’s the fun in that?
Here are some plays to keep an eye on this week:
Tyler Huntley – For real. The matchup isn’t great, but ownership is going to be ridiculously low and Huntley is mobile. In just five games last year where he played a meaningful amount of time, Huntley had nearly 300 yards on the ground while putting up almost 1,100 yards through the air. He might not quite be Lamar Jackson, but he could make for a dirt-cheap alternative with upside.
D’Andre Swift – Supremely talented, Swift is beginning to re-emerge after a lost season, just as the Lions get hot. With just a 0.76% ownership clip last week, Swift could be a great contrarian option, timeshare be damned.
Tony Pollard – Pollard ran roughshod over the Colts last week, and despite the presence of Ezekiel Elliot, it’s clear Pollard is the most dynamic back at this stage in their careers. The timeshare will continue to be an issue, but Pollard can simply make a lot out of a little and could feast on the Texans.
Chris Godwin – Here’s one for you: who is the only player with double digit targets in at least six of their last seven games? Yep, Chris Godwin. It’s not a great matchup, but the targets are there and with the Bucs season hanging in the balance, it might be time for Old Reliable to start balling out again.
Greg Dulcich – We’re going back to the well here. Yes, playing anyone on Denver is putrid. But he’s lining up as WR and Courtland Sutton has already been ruled out. With my Albert O dreams destroyed, I’ll foist them upon the next Denver TE in line. Let’s ride!