Let’s get ready to RUMBLE! Only three weeks left in the regular season…
Wow, what a week. We witnessed what may go down as the craziest play in NFL history, the greatest comeback in NFL history, and with a slew of other wild finishes. Trevor Lawrence has officially emerged as the real deal, propelling the Jags, who are now the odds-on favorite to win the AFC South, to an incredible comeback victory over the Cowboys. The week had some bad news though, as MVP front-runner Jalen Hurts will miss some time – possibly even the rest of the regular season – with a shoulder injury. Not only could that damage Hurts’ chances, but it’s a devastating loss for fantasy purposes. Lastly, we’d be remiss not to pay homage to Franco Harris, who caught the immortalized Immaculate Reception, and passed away earlier this week. He’ll be missed.
Reactions to Last Week
For the first time ever, tie goes to the serial number. Kookaburra and Yeahbaby played identical lineups, but Kookaburra brought home the ultimate prize thanks to a combined serial score of 682, compared to Yeahbaby’s 2,450. Taking it a step further, these two lineups were nearly identical to the lineups that placed 3rd – 14th, with the only difference being that Kookaburra and Yeahbaby rolled the dice and played A.J. Brown, while the rest played Derrick Henry. While the similarities may seem crazy at first, much of this roster construction phenomenon can be attributed to the fact that four games occurred before the Sunday lock time, three of which churned out some smash plays. Josh Allen put up big numbers in a shootout against Miami, while Christian McCaffery and George Kittle did major damage against the Seahawks on Thursday night. To top things off, the Vikings staged the greatest comeback in NFL history, thanks largely to K.J. Osborne, Justin Jefferson, and Dalvin Cook. Despite the Vikings massive comeback, the Indianapolis DST also feasted early. When it was all said and done, seven of eight slots were spoken for, leaving just the Flex position in doubt. We’ve had some big early slates before, but nothing quite like this. With a showdown on the line, it came down to Brown vs Henry, with Brown ultimately edging out the Titans RB. Of course, had any player gone super contrarian and rolled with Zay Jones or Jerrick McKinnon it would have been an easy victory, but alas…
Because most of the roster construction was in the bag by Sunday morning, we’re not going to go through the top five at each position, largely because ownership numbers were skewed so heavily towards the early slate. Perhaps the most interesting takeaways from the week came down to the propensity of the field to play decent, but unspectacular options from the Thursday/Saturday games, even though they were already drawing at a loss. For example, Tyreek Hill showed up in 21% of rosters, the 4th highest ownership in Week 16, despite the fact that Jefferson and Osborne put up significantly better numbers. Hill finished with 21.9 points, far from a bad play, but not exactly the formula for a winning payout. Nonetheless, we’ve seen the field embrace a surprisingly conservative approach when it comes to hedging bets from the early games, and the trend continued. Similarly, Kirk Cousins, who had a massive day, or massive second half to be more accurate, also showed up in 5% of lineups. That’s not a huge number by normal metrics, but Josh Allen had also already played and had a higher score, meaning Cousins was immediately putting the lineup in a hole.
Week 16
Due to a scheduling change, the vast majority of games this week are played on Saturday,resulting in a 1pm ET Saturday lock time. Take note! That, coupled with an unremarkable TNF game between the Jaguars and Jets, means that Rumble Rosters are likely wide open. Evan Engram, who has been on a torrid hot streak of late, is probably the only player in consideration, though his 16.6 points probably won’t be enough to persuade players to roster him over Travis Kelce. Unlike last week when Zay Jones went nuclear, all WRs ended up as duds, with Garrett Wilson leading the way with a pedestrian 6 points. Instead, players will need to get creative this week, despite some of the marquee injuries. Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson have already all been ruled out, taking many of the best dual-threat QBs out of the equation. That leaves the usual suspects, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as the predictable 1-2 punch, both of whom are in very favorable matchups. But there’s one game that might not be on your radar that piques our interest – Tampa Bay vs Arizona. The Buccaneers are fighting for their playoff lives, playing against a decimated Arizona team that will be starting third-stringer Trace McSorley. Yes, we could see Tampa playing a plodding, uninspired game that relies on three-yard runs up the gut with Leonard Fournette, but if there was ever a time for Tom Brady to turn it on and remind people that he’s still the GOAT, it’s now. Chris Godwin has been very solid albeit without a true explosive performance, while Mike Evans has been in a similar boat all season, seemingly stuck in neutral.
WEATHER ALERTS: One big thing to keep in mind this week when building your lineups is what impact the weather will have. We are seeing some of the lowest team totals this week as teams fight the winter elements. The worst game is looking like New Orleans vs Cleveand with a ridiculous 32.5 game total but others also bring with them risk.
If Tampa’s terrible performance of late is too much to stomach, Green Bay and Miami offer some additional intrigue, tied with Kansas City and Seattle for the highest point totals. It will be interesting to see how players construct their roster in a week where uncertainty is king, ranging from weather conditions to injuries to less-than-ideal matchups.
Last Week’s Grades
Before we get into who we’re keeping an eye on this week, let’s take a look at our prognosticator last week:
Justin Fields – Fields was solid, though the Bears ultimately sputtered in the end. Still, the second year QB is showing he’s the real deal, playing well against a stout Philadelphia defense en route to a QB7 finish. Grade: B+
Miles Sanders – Oy vey. Sanders was inexplicably absent during the entire first half, and when he finally was used, he turned the ball over and was credited with -13 yards on the play. This chalky opportunity turned into a disaster, fast. Grade: F
Garrett Wilson – This game just never got off the ground, as both the Jets and Lions sputtered. Wilson wasn’t bad, but the numbers weren’t nearly good enough to bring home the bacon, ending the day with a 4/98/0 clip. Grade: C+
James Conner – Conner was pretty decent despite a gross game on all fronts, racking up close to 100 all-purpose yards and a TD. His 18.1 points were good for the RB12 spot. Grade: B
Greg Dulcich – Well, we were spot on that a Denver TE would get into the end zone. Unfortunately, it was Eric Tomlinson (who?) with Dulcich taking a back seat and only grabbing one ball for 11 yards. Bleh. Grade: D+
Plays to Consider
As always, we’re avoiding the obvious plays, because where’s the fun in that?
Here are some plays to keep an eye on this week:
Tom Brady – If you’ve watched any Tampa Bay games lately, this one probably isn’t very intriguing, and we really can’t blame you. The offense has looked out of sync, culminating with a full-scale implosion last week against Cincinnati. Still, Tampa leads the grotesque NFC South with a 6-8 week and plays a decimated Cardinals team that’s just waiting to get on the links. Paring Brady with Chris Godwin or Mike Evans may seem scary, but as Matt Damon’s ill-fated crypto commercial reminded us, “fortune favors the brave”…or something.
Jerick McKinnon – Back in the day, the Minnesota Vikings thought they had something special with Jerick McKinnon. We saw flashes of brilliance, but his talent was often derailed by injury, something that followed him to San Francisco, and then Kansas City. Now 30 years old, McKinnon is emerging as the weapon that Patrick Mahomes needs, especially with lackluster performances from everyone outside of Travis Kelce. McKinnon has already set a career high in receiving yards and should play another big role this week against a Seattle defense that has been dismal against RBs.
Amon Ra St. Brown – St. Brown has been quiet the last two weeks, at least for his standards. And without a blow-up game on TNF, we expect to see some of the big names, like Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs getting priority treatment in the WR slot. But with the Lions surging and the playoffs suddenly in reach, this could be an under-the-radar opportunity in a plus matchup against Carolina. The only concern here is that the Panthers can’t keep up with the Lions, which could result in a route.
DK Metcalf – Guess which team has given up the most passing TDs this year? If you guessed the Kansas City Chiefs, you’re correct. Part of this has to do with the fact that Kansas City is leading so often, forcing teams to go to the air in comeback mode. Nonetheless, the Seahawks have been a surprisingly good team with Geno Smith at the helm, and Tyler Lockett has already been ruled out this week. There is a very good chance Seattle will need to take to the air, giving Metcalf a solid opportunity to shine with limited competition for targets.
Dalton Schultz – With Jalen Hurts sidelined, the Cowboys have a chance to stick it to their NFC East rivals. Schultz busted last week in a crazy loss to the suddenly hot Jaguars, but since returning from injury he’s been one of Dak Prescott’s most reliable receiving options. This one will be a little hard to predict due to the injuries on Philadelphia’s side, and might not turn into the track meet most had hoped, but Schultz offers value and a solid deviation from the typical TE options.