After an historic Week 15, Week 16 unraveled as a more subdued affair, largely in part to uncooperative weather and an onslaught of injuries and benchings. Few games lived up to the hype, though Gardner Minshew showed why he’s everyone’s favorite backup, and the unmitigated disaster in Denver finally claimed Nathaniel Hackett, who was ritualistically sacrificed as penance for a pathetic showing against the beleaguered Rams. Unlike last week, we’re back to our regularly scheduled broadcast with games returning to their Sunday slots and lock times.
Reactions to Last Week
As the season has progressed, we’ve begun to see victorious rosters emerge that went against the chalk, which, let’s be real, is always more fun. This week’s Main Event winner, Mrichards26 made the gutsiest call yet, not only playing the Chargers DST, which was played in just 1.58% of rosters, but also played them in the Hero spot! As Albert Einstein once said, “The only difference between genius and insanity is that genius has its limits.” The wild call paid off, thanks largely in part to Nick Foles’ horrendous outing that made Matt Ryan look like Michael Vick. Not only did our victor play the Chargers DST, but they made some other incredibly shrewd decisions, like playing Dak Prescott against the stout Eagles defense, and Jaylen Waddle over Tyreek Hill, and of course going with T.J. Hockenson over Travis Kelce despite a great matchup against the Seahawks.
While some of the selections were obvious smash plays, like Derrick Henry against the Texans, or Christian McCaffrey against the Commanders, this lineup was much more contrarian than we’re used to seeing in the top slot, owing a lot to the chaos that often ensues at the end of the season.
The top five QBs last week were a cluster of bizarre performances, led by Dak Prescott, who only appeared in 1% of lineups. From there, Jared Goff, Gardner Minshew, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen rounded out the top five. Goff and Minshew were barely played, appearing in just 0.42% of lineups cumulatively, and even Burrow had low numbers, just over 3%. Allen was the second most played QB on the slate, at almost 21%, but Patrick Mahomes predictably dominated ownership, with nearly a third of the field playing him. Mahomes wasn’t bad – he finished as the QB7 with 23.76 points, but it wasn’t good enough.
If QB was an unpredictable cluster, RB was even weirder. The RB1 was Cam Akers, by a huge margin, though he was understandably rostered in a mere 0.33% of lineups. Seemingly dead in the water earlier this year and now saddled with a roster of backups, Akers went wild, torching the normally stout Broncos defense en route to three TDs. So much for the Kyren Williams truthers. The rest of the top five were composed of Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, James Conner and Austin Ekeler, but the two chalkiest plays, who actually both appeared in the winning lineup, Henry and McCaffery, had disappointing showings. Henry appeared in over 60% of lineups and finished as the RB8, while McCaffrey was played in over 55% of lineups but finished as the RB15.
Justin Jefferson was predictably the highest owned WR at over 53%, and as usual, he performed, racking up a 12/133/1 line on his way to the WR2 spot. The rest of the chalk, however, was less kind. Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, and especially Stefon Diggs all disappointed despite being the only other WRs with over an 18% share. While the thought was right – the Dolphins, Bengals, and Bills should all have success through the air, the WR was wrong. Instead of Chase, Tee Higgins went off finishing as the WR4 with just 1.67% ownership. Instead of Hill, Jaylen Waddle exploded thanks to an early 84-yard bomb, and was the WR5. And instead of Diggs, it was an amalgamation of other Bills pass catchers that cobbled together an ugly win in blustery Chicago. When it was all said and done, CeeDee Lamb dominated in a huge game against the Eagles, earning Week 16’s WR1 honors, while opposite him, DeVonta Smith balled out for the Eagles and took home the WR3 slot, joining Jefferson, Higgins, and Waddle. Amazingly, Kendrick Bourne was the WR6, and was not played in a single Rumble Roster!
For the second time this season, T.J. Hockenson went wild, with a ridiculous 13/109/2 line against the Giants. And while Hockenson went insane, claiming the TE1 position along the way, Tyler Higbee and George Kittle also had huge showings and posted at least 30 points as well, coming in as the TE2 and TE3. The resurgent Evan Engram grabbed the TE4 slot, while Travis Kelce finished as the TE5 in a solid, but unspectacular showing. One of the most interesting things we saw in Week 16 though is that the field finally, albeit begrudgingly, seems to be going away from Mark Andrews. The Ravens stud TE has had a disastrous second half of the season, largely in part to Lamar Jackson’s injury, though his season was far from memorable even before Jackson went down.
Los Angeles ruled the day on the DST side of the ball, with the Rams and Chargers coming in as DST1 and DST2 on the week. Surprisingly, Houston came in 3rd thanks to a collapsing Titans team, “led” by Malik Willis. Jacksonville and Pittsburgh rounded out the top 5, while the Broncos, one of the chalkier plays on the week, had the worst week imaginable, giving up 45 points to the Rams.
Week 17
Week 17 is shaping up to be one of the toughest calls yet. As the season progresses, teams routinely rest or showcase players in ways that makes roster construction more difficult than usual. The short week already claimed Derrick Henry, who sat on Thursday against Dallas. On the other side of the ball, Tony Pollard also missed the game. While Lamb had a very strong showing, Dalton Schultz stole the show and should be locked and loaded as the highest-owned TE this week – alas, he remains Moment-less! Jalen Hurts is highly questionable, and even if he does play, there is a serious risk that he could be pulled early, especially if the Eagles get out to a big lead against the Saints. Derek Carr has already been sat by the Raiders, ceding the reins to Jarrett Stidham. The move not only could spell doom for Davante Adams, but it could take the entire Raiders offense out of sync, also hurting Josh Jacobs. In Indianapolis, Nick Foles’ corpse is in line to start for a second straight week. If you thought Matt Ryan looked ancient and immobile, Foles looked even worse and could be a sitting duck against the Giants in what is shaping up to be an ugly, low-scoring win-and-in opportunity for New York.
Because of all the uncertainty, I’m looking at games that matter from a playoff perspective. Jacksonville has been on fire lately, and Trevor Lawrence looks like the real deal. The Titans have completely collapsed, and the AFC South is ripe for the picking, especially with the Texans up next. The only concern here is that the Texans have no firepower, which could cap the Jaguars offensive output. Detroit lost a brutal, winnable game last week against Carolina and was absolutely decimated on the ground by D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. Despite the positive gameflow for the Lions, Amon Ra St. Brown never really took off. This week, the Lions face off against the Bears in what could be a high scoring affair. David Montgomery isn’t exactly the flashiest object, but he’s one of Chicago’s few remaining weapons and should be in line for a big workload, assuming Chicago seeks to replicate Carolina’s success. While the Lions came out flat footed last week, a playoff spot is still within reach. Last but certainly not least, the Buffalo – Cincinnati game has been circled on everyone’s calendar for months. Joe Burrow has looked fantastic, a few errant interceptions in New England notwithstanding, and the Bengals are firing on all cylinders at the best time. Meanwhile, the Bills are hoping to clinch the #1 seed in the AFC but have looked a little shaky of late. The usual suspects – Allen, Chase, Diggs – will all have high ownership, as fans hope for a shootout.
Last Week’s Grades
Before we get into who we’re keeping an eye on this week, let’s take a look at our prognosticator last week:
Tom Brady – Nope, it still didn’t happen. Though Brady marched the lifeless Bucs to the most boring comeback win ever, he didn’t look great and relied heavily on the dink and dunk, coming in as the QB15. Grade: C-
Jerick McKinnon – For his role, McKinnon has been fantastic. But the entire game against Seattle was a disappointment, and while McKinnon did score once again, the rest of his numbers were pedestrian, finishing as the RB17. Grade: C
Amon Ra St. Brown – This game could not have possibly had a better game script for St. Brown, as the Lions fell behind early. Unfortunately, he was only able to muster a 7/76/0 line as the WR20. Grade: C
DK Metcalf – Another decent showing in a prime position that was undone by the lack of a touchdown. Metcalf was targeted early and often, but Geno Smith has officially returned to earth. The WR17 finished with a 7/81/0 line. Grade: C+
Plays to Consider
As always, we’re avoiding the obvious plays, because where’s the fun in that?
Here are some plays to keep an eye on this week:
Trevor Lawrence/Christian Kirk/Evan Engram – It’s always tough to pick a Jaguars pass catcher, but Jacksonville is in a position to feast. If the thought of choosing wrong gives you cold feet, playing Lawrence naked is also an option, especially due to his propensity for short yard rushing TDs.
David Montgomery – Recently, there was a lot of talk about how the Lions defense had dramatically improved. Then Week 16 happened. Let’s go back to the well here and see what the Lions are made of.
Leonard Fournette – Last week, Tampa leaned heavily on the veteran back to get them back into the game against a listless Cardinals team. Carolina is extremely physical, but with a division championship on the line, expect Tampa to go back to Old Reliable, especially since Brady loves to check it down. A few weeks ago, it looked like Rachaad White was getting ready to supplant Fournette, but that simply has not happened yet.
Jerry Jeudy – This one is prime risk, I get it. But despite the unmitigated disaster that are the Broncos, the matchup is good, Denver will almost certainly have to be playing from behind, and Jeudy has been sneakily solid in a putrid season that immediately was headed for the abyss. Plus, Nathaniel Hackett is gone, so maybe they’ll catch some lightning in a bottle.
Drake London – With Kyle Pitts shelved and few other options in Atlanta, London is emerging, finally, as the top dog in Atlanta. He has a juicy matchup against Arizona, where he’ll likely face off against CB Marco Wilson, a very winnable battle for the rookie wideout.