Week 1 is officially in the books. Familiar faces lit up the stat sheets, including some triumphant returns to relevancy. Coaching decisions were heavily scrutinized, leaving some fanbases rejoicing and others scratching their heads. From gutsy last second two-point conversions to questionable 64-yard field goal attempts, Week 1 ranged the gamut from heroics to buffoonery, a perfect summation of why we love this sport. Of course, every gut-wrenching call and hair pulling decision impacts your Rumble Roster, and that’s what we’re here to dig into today.
Week 1 Reactions
Hope springs eternal before opening kick-off. Sometimes, that hope is rewarded, as a star buds or a franchise’s fortunes turn. Other times, hope quickly erodes, with dreams of a fresh start dashed by the reality of inadequate talent. It’s hard to identify a statistical outlier, good or bad, when you have a tiny sample size, so looking beyond the box score is particularly important when it comes to your marketplace purchases and Rumble Roster construction strategy going forward.
Going into Week 1, we were curious to see what type of roster would take down the grand prize, especially because the top preseason entry didn’t play a Hero (a Rare or Legendary Moment which receives 1.25x that player’s base score). Last week, more than 7,500 players entered a lineup, which is truly amazing in its own right. When it was all said and done, JerryOnDrums won it all, putting up 236.73 points.
Looking at this roster along with other top contenders, it’s clear that for Week 1, going heavy on the chalk was the key to victory. If you were to put together a list of the top players at every position, this would basically be it. The one notable exception in JerryOnDrums’ lineup was the inclusion of Saquon Barkley, who was only started in 4.84% of lineups and finished as the RB1 on the week. This ended up being the difference maker, as only two of the top 22 lineups had any RB tandem other than Christian McCaffery and Jonathan Taylor.
While Taylor was great, McCaffery’s average (to no fault of his own) performance highlights an interesting situation present in Rumble, but not other DFS formats – without a salary cap, when do you trust your gut over consensus rankings? If you have a large collection and can only play one lineup, will you have the conviction to spurn the rankings and play someone like Saquon over McCaffery, even though McCaffery and Taylor were ranked 1 and 2 by most pundits? This week, things were extra chalky, but it will be very interesting to see what happens in a week when the big names miss, especially because ownership for the top projected players was so high. A contrarian lineup didn’t rule the day this week, but we’ll see if that lasts…
Week 2 Stacks to Consider
First and foremost, you’re going to want to consider stacks from the TNF matchup every week. The Rumble Wrinkle makes every Thursday matchup an attractive one, though how you play it will depend on your collection, budget, and the price of TNF Moments. We always like the idea of strategically playing the market, which could either mean trying to buy low on an underpriced Moment or trying to sell high if you think a fade is incoming.
This TNF matchup is juicy, pitting two of the most high-profile rivals against one another. Unfortunately, that also means these Moments are in high demand and are pricey. Currently, the low ask on Justin Herbert is $73, while Patrick Mahomes is sitting at $79. With Keenan Allen sidelined with a hamstring injury, Gerald Everett could serve as a juicy replacement. Alas, he is currently without a Moment, so that’s off the table for now. Mike Williams doesn’t have a Common Moment, and the Rare low ask is currently $185. Despite a brutal Week 1, that could be a smash play, but the high price tag could be prohibitive for many players. Austin Ekeler is more reasonable at a $58 floor, but pairing a QB/RB stack can be problematic, even with Ekeler’s high pass catching upside. Additionally, his Week 1 usage was a bit concerning, with Sony Michel and Joshua Kelly playing a much more prominent role than expected.
On the Kansas City side of the ball, the options are much lower priced, though their higher mint sizes could also be reflected in ownership. Travis Kelce put any fears related to his age to bed, dominating the TE spot last week, and has a low ask of $61, factors that will nearly certainly equate to massive ownership. Kansas City also has a trio of potentially high-ceiling receivers in Mecole Hardman ($19), Marquez Valdes-Scanting ($22), and Juju Smith-Schuster ($28). Patrick Mahomes already apologized to fantasy players last week, stating that “it’ll be a different guy every week,” but the Rumble Wrinkle provides insulation there. Inherently, but perhaps not intuitively, it also caps upside. If Juju puts up a 10/150/2 line he’ll have huge ownership, like Kupp last week, as opposed to Saquon’s 4% ownership since he played on Sunday and players weren’t afforded a sneak peak at production.
When it comes to the rest of the week, it’s easy to suggest the chalk plays, especially based on Week 1. But, where’s the fun in that? Yes, Allen – Diggs, Stafford – Kupp, Lamar – Andrews etc. are all very much in play, but you already knew that. Instead, let’s take a look at some of the potentially lesser used stacks that should be on your radar this week.
Jalen Hurts & A.J. Brown
Welcome to the City of Brotherly Love, Mr. Brown. In his Philadelphia debut, Brown went wild, catching 10 balls for 155 yards. Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott all ran in short touchdowns putting a damper on the Eagles passing parade, but the combination of Brown’s massive target share, Hurts’ insane rushing upside, and a potential shootout in Minnesota make this a juicy stack. Running it back with Justin Jefferson would be an obvious play here too if you think that type of game script will materialize.
Kyler Murray & Marquise Brown
To me, Kyler Murray didn’t look good in Week 1. His fantasy day was salvaged by some garbage time production once the Cardinals were already down by 30, and he looked generally uncomfortable in the pocket. While the eye-test wasn’t spectacular, Murray’s elite rushing upside, along with the sour taste from last week’s dismantling and a 51.5-point total could mean things align nicely. The Cardinals could easily find themselves trailing to Devonte Adams and the Raiders, and ownership could be very low. Last week, both Kyler and Hollywood were only started in 4% of lineups, and this week could be even lower. Additionally, Hollywood is expected to be matched up against Rock Ya-Sin, who struggled in Week 1.
Trevon Lawrence & Christian Kirk
Kirk’s massive contract was almost universally mocked this offseason, but he sure looked solid on Sunday. Kirk caught six balls for 117 yards, while Lawrence quietly had the 11th most passing yards on the week. The projected point total in their divisional matchup against Indianapolis isn’t astronomical, and this isn’t exactly the most glamorous duo of all time, but very low expected ownership + low marketplace cost = upside potential.
Aaron Rodgers & Allen Lazard
Last week was brutal for the Packers. Christian Watson capped his frustrating preseason by dropping a bomb that would have gone for an easy TD on the first drive, which basically summed up Green Bay’s afternoon. Despite the Romeo Doubs love affair, the Packers badly need some form of reliable veteran presence. While I’m not convinced Lazard is that guy, he’s definitely going to get a shot. Despite the Bears’ Week 1 monsoon victory, they are not a good team and Rodgers will be playing with a huge chip on his shoulder.
Value Buys and Other Plays
In addition to these stacks, there are a lot of attractive value buys across the league, many of which could be smash spots. Last week, we focused on players under $15, but as a rising tide lifts all boats and the market is up, we’ve increased that number to $25 this week.
QBs
Matt Stafford, $17 – Still not getting any love, Akers looks awful and the Rams should light up the Falcons, bad elbow or not.
Jameis Winston, $20 – The Michael Thomas hype seems real and New Orleans has a talented trio of receivers, despite a tough matchup.
Daniel Jones, $21 – Better in fantasy than reality, Jones responded well to Daboll’s criticism and plays a Carolina team that just gave up 26 points to Jacoby Brissett.
RBs
Antonio Gibson, $20 – Back from the dead, Gibson looked great and should command 20+ touches.
Rhamondre Stevenson, $21 – Despite the Week 1 disappointment, Stevenson has real upside as a pass catcher, especially with Ty Montgomery removed from the equation.
Joe Mixon, $22 – One of my favorite plays of the week, the Dallas implosion ha already begun, Cincinnati is hungry, and Mixon is getting massive usage.
Aaron Jones, $23 – Jones and Dillon make up the entirety of Green Bay’s offensive output at the moment, and both will be relied on heavily.
WRs
Michael Gallup, $13 – Buy low, especially with Dak out and the Dallas WR core in shambles.
Marquise Brown, $17 – Mentioned above, the combination of corner matchup + recent struggles + shootout potential makes this one look juicy, especially at this price point.
Christian Kirk, $18 – Also mentioned above, we’re always going to take a flier on a team’s clearcut #1, especially at this price.
Jerry Jeudy, $21 – Week 1 was a disaster for Denver, but the passing game was clicking and Jeudy eclipsed the 100 yard mark.
Cortland Sutton, $22 – Same as Jeudy, Sutton should see even more targets and Denver will improve.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, $25 – I was skeptical that he’d see the same target share this year, but I’m all aboard the Sun God train now.
TEs
Hayden Hurst, $11 – With Tee Higgins banged up, Hurst stepped into a much bigger role and had a surprisingly solid Week 1.
Albert Okwuegbunam, $12 – There are a lot of mouths to feed in Denver, but Albert O, who had a very up and down training camp, has major talent and seems entrenched in the gameplan, at least while Greg Dulcich is out.
George Kittle, $15 – Uncertainties about Trey Lance remain and Kittle missed Week 1, but I’m still a believer in one of the most talented TEs in the league, at least until proven otherwise.
Darren Waller, $22 – No longer the focal point of the offense, Waller still put up a 4/79 mark and should get plenty of looks without the Kelce-esque price tag.
Pat Freiermuth, $23 – Trubisky needs a safety valve to have any chance of survival, and Najee is clearly banged up…all in on the Muth.