From devastating injuries to unbelievable comebacks, Week 2 had it all. Miami pulled off a miracle for the ages, securing the first 4th quarter comeback of at least 21 points since 2010. Meanwhile, the Browns snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in a way that only the Browns could do, somehow losing despite a 99.9% win probability against the Joe Flacco-led Jets. It was Halloween in September, and we’re all for it as we dig into early season reactions and how it impacts your Rumble Roster construction.
Reactions to Week 2
The sample size has doubled, but it still can be difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. One of the most difficult and sometimes confounding aspects of fantasy football is identifying the difference between a player who is good IRL and a player who is simply good in fantasy. Sometimes, drawing this distinction doesn’t matter – a player regularly puts up a ton of garbage time points, so be it. But, a discerning eye can also be predictive on both sides of the coin, helping you start a dark horse or fade an overhyped player.
In Week 1, chalky lineups were the name of the game. Superstars at their respective positions balled out, and there were comparatively few surprises. Week 2 had plenty of familiar faces, but we began to see some variance, along with some interesting trends.
At QB, Lamar and Tua dominated the headlines and the stat sheets, followed predictably by Hurts and Allen. Allen likely would have had an even bigger game but Buffalo so thoroughly obliterated the hapless Titans that he was in street clothes by the 4th quarter and only ran the ball once.
At WR, big name players dominated once again led by Stefon Diggs’ three touchdown night, besting both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle who had insane games of their own. Cooper Kupp continued his ridiculously reliable play, putting up at least 90 yards for the 21st time in 23 games paired with Matt Stafford. Notably, Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams were duds – Jefferson had a legitimately bad game and was blanketed by Darius Slay in Philadelphia, while Davante Adams was curiously out-targeted by Mack Hollins – how quintessentially Josh McDaniels.
But while QB and WR were more predictable at the top, RB and TE had much more variance. Comparatively, only Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones put up more than 20 points, largely a function of split backfields across the league, along with duds from last week’s studs, Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley. Mark Andrews was projected as a top option last week as usual, and he delivered with a big game. After that, things got much murkier, with Tyler Higbee and the ghost of Mike Gesicki making surprise appearances. Through two weeks, TE has been incredibly tough sledding if you don’t have Kelce or Andrews, with some major notable absences atop leaderboards, highlighted by Kyle Pitts.
Defensively, Tampa, Jacksonville, and Buffalo were the only three to crack 20 points, while Atlanta had a bizarre game, putting up some late points thanks to a blocked kick resulting in a TD and a last second intentional safety, locking up the #4 spot despite conceding 31 points.
Week 2 saw the victor use a Hero once again, this time employing Jalen Hurts in that role. Carbie93 eked out a close win thanks to Buffalo’s late pick 6 to seal the deal.
Unlike last week, there was a significant amount of variance in the top lineups. Tua was absent in the top 10, and Jaylen Waddle only appeared once. 22 of the top 24 lineups paired Kupp and Diggs, while Andrews also appeared in almost all of them. With the top WRs hitting at a much higher rate than top RBs, savvy plays in the backfield are shaping up to be the major difference maker. Unlike last week, where both Saquon and Taylor were the clearcut bellcows, dominating touches, Aaron Jones and Nick Chubb each sit firmly in a timeshare. Most importantly, both Jones and Chubb were outplayed by their respective teammates last week, AJ Dillon and Kareem Hunt, making them harder to pick.
Week 3 Thursday Night Strategy
Enough about last week, let’s look ahead to Week 3. Last week, we called out the importance of looking at your TNF matchup for leverage, especially when a player hadn’t experienced a price pump leading up to the game, which would provide a high upside opportunity, paired with limited risk in case of a bust. Week 2’s matchup was marquee, which resulted in top players having high price tags, potentially putting them out of range for many of our players.
Week 3 is the opposite. On paper, Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland is just gross from a fantasy perspective. While the old AFC North Rustbelt rivalries are always fun, the Browns and Steelers, the game currently has a comically low total number of points at just 38.5. In other words, everything is setting up just perfectly! You might think we’re joking, and we kind of are, but there are actually could be some value worth considering here, if only for the TNF protection. Nick Chubb has a $35 low ask and was just the RB1, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Cleveland goes back to the ground and pound approach. David Njoku ($16) and especially Pat Freiermuth ($27) are worthy of consideration given the extremely thin production at TE this season. Freiermuth has established himself as Trubisky’s much needed safety blanket, and the fact that both these players only have one Moment gives nice downside protection. Neither Trubisky or Jacoby Brissett have an ALL DAY Moment yet, so both QBs are off the table, though it’s extremely unlikely either would find their way into many starting lineups, regardless. Coming into the season, Najee Harris ($52) had huge expectations, both as a potential legitimate bell cow and as a back that could catch the ball, but Pittsburgh’s all-around anemic offense hasn’t done him any favors so far.
Week 3 Stacks and Sleepers
Every week, we’re going to call out some stacks to consider that might be a little less obvious. No, this doesn’t mean Josh Allen & Stefon Diggs are off the table, or that you shouldn’t play Patrick Mahomes & Travis Kelce – you just don’t need us to tell you that. Instead, let’s check out some other options that have piqued our interest.
I am not a Carson Wentz fan. He’s racked up a ton of points, but he’s also looked awful at times, has thrown a ton of picks, and been sacked often. Nonetheless, Washington presents an interesting opportunity – they’re not good defensively, and they have a solid group of weapons up front. Curtis Samuel and rookie Jahan Dotson don’t have Moments yet, but Terry McLaurin does, and he’s cheap ($16). They’re also going up against a dynamic Philadelphia squad that should score a lot of points, and also gave up a boatload to Detroit. Washington will likely have very low ownership because Carson Wentz is about as unglamorous of an option as you can find, but one man’s trash is another man’s starting Rumble QB.
Trevor Lawrence & Christian Kirk
We said it last week, and we’ll say it again. Christian Kirk is legitimately good and being used heavily in the slot, something Kliff Kingsbury seemingly couldn’t figure out in Arizona. Jacksonville is scheming to get him the ball, and Trevor Lawrence is improving. A matchup with the vaunted Chargers could lead to a shootout opportunity.
Russell Wilson & Courtland Sutton
Yiiiikes. It’s been a brutal start for Russell Wilson in Denver. While Nathaniel Hackett looks like he may not be qualified to coach a Pop Warner team, Wilson hasn’t exactly looked good either. Last week, Denver was so disjointed that fans at Mile High literally called out the play clock as it ticked down, mockingly helping their team avoid another brutal delay of game penalty. It’s no secret, Denver has been atrocious, especially considering the hype, and the memes of “Let’s Ride!” only grow stronger by the day. But this could be a prime buy-low opportunity, especially as they face off against a stout San Francisco team. Sutton was great last week after Jerry Jeudy went down, and while the latter seems in line to play this week, the potential high upside and very low ownership is attractive. One caveat is Wilson’s high price point, with a current low ask of $63, so this might be one to use if you already have him in your collection or have a substantial bankroll.
Fournette was great against Dallas, serviceable but not particularly efficient against New Orleans. And while there are flashier options out there (at much lower price points than Lenny’s cool $190 low ask), Green Bay has been gashed on the ground in both games, giving up 126 yards to Minnesota in Week 1, and 180 to the putrid Bears in Week 2. Meanwhile, Tampa is likely going to be without Mike Evans who is slated for a suspension, Chris Godwin, and possibly Julio Jones. While the prospects of a washed Cole Beasley might be intriguing (not), Fournette could see some serious volume with a very attractive gamescript.
Speaking of the putrid Bears, here’s one of the only members of the offense you could conceivably start! Chicago is terrified of letting Justin Fields throw the ball, resulting in a pathetic 11 passing attempts in last week’s game, despite being down by three scores. Left for dead in preseason rankings, David Montgomery has been serviceable, if not downright good, in the first two weeks, and the Bears have a winnable matchup against the equally bad Texans.
One of the most interesting starts from last week in the top 10 lineups was the utilization of a Damien Harris Hero Moment, employed by the lineup that came in 4th, Heirjordan2. It was unconventional but came so close to working to perfection. Harris quietly racked up 71 yards and a TD on the ground, and came agonizingly close to a second score. He’s averaged 5 yards per carry through two games, and while Baltimore’s secondary is their main vulnerability, New England doesn’t have the horses to run with the Ravens and will likely try to keep Lamar Jackson and company off the field as much as possible. Ownership will be miniscule, and Harris is quietly in line for a lot of touches.
Value Plays
Many of the best options might already be priced out of your range, but there’s plenty of Rumble viable players that can be grabbed on the market for affordable prices.
QBs
Matt Stafford, $16 – Stafford had a very Stafford-esque game – 3 TDs, 2 INTs, and 277 yards. He was Rumble’s QB9 last week, so you could easily do worse. Plus, Los Angeles plays Arizona, one of the worst defensive units in the league thus far.
Jameis Winston, $16– He didn’t look great against Tampa, but had a ridiculous amount of air yards attempted, has competent receivers, and gets a week Carolina team.
Carson Wentz, $22 – I don’t love it anymore than you do, but Wentz was the QB5 and Commanders seem happy to let him chuck and pray.
RBs
Nyheim Hines, $9 – Way off the beaten path, this is more about the Colts facing an impending beat down to the Chiefs, Matt Ryan looking flat out bad, and the potential for the Colts to check down often to move the ball. He’s got 10 receptions through two games, so he could have real pass-catching viability.
James Robinson, $13 – It’s Robinson’s backfield, for now. There is a good chance Jacksonville has to go to the air in this one (hence the Lawrence/Kirk stack suggestion), but Robinson has gotten a ton of touches and been productive two weeks in a row.
Antonio Gibson, $13 – Returned to Earth after a great Week 1, but any RB that should get 15+ touches on a weekly basis is in play, especially at this price.
Chase Edmonds, $14 – Completely irrelevant until the last drive of the game and seemingly playing second fiddle to Raheem Mostert, I expect Edmonds to see a much-increased workload against Buffalo in Week 3.
WRs
Scotty Miller, $9 – Yes, really. Miller might serve as Tampa’s WR1 this week, and actually saw 8 targets last week. We don’t exactly love this one, but something something desperate times…
DJ Chark, $9 – I love the Lions this year. Between a great offensive line, some electric pieces up front, and a bad defense, they’re the perfect team to have pieces of. Chark put up a bagel last week after a decent Week 1, and I expect a better showing against the Vikings.
Darnell Mooney, $14 – It literally has to get better for Mooney. After putting up over 1,000 yards last year, Mooney currently has…4. Like I said…it has to get better.
Marquise Brown, $14 – Arizona has looked badly out of sync, but Kyler worked some magic after a brutal first half to defeat the equally dysfunctional Raiders. With James Conner potentially banged up, Kingsbury needs to figure out how to get the ball to Brown more, especially since they’ll likely need a lot of points against the Rams.
Brandon Aiyuk, $15 – The terrible injury to Trey Lance means Jimmy G is back and ready for action. It’ll be interesting to see what the scheme looks like, especially with San Francisco’s RB core already decimated with injuries, as usual. Expect Deebo and Kittle to see plenty of action, but Aiyuk has had success with Garoppolo in the past.
TEs
Evan Engram, $9 – There was a lot of talk this offseason about Doug Pederson’s propensity to use the TE, and so far it’s come to fruition for Evan Engram. In two games, Engram has 11 grabs already, including seven last week.
T.J. Hockenson, $13 – It’s been a disconcerting start to the season for Hockenson, who has been one of the few offensive weapons in Detroit that hasn’t eaten yet. He and Goff have not clicked, but the highly regarded TE has received 14 targets in two games.
Tyler Higbee, $13 – Quietly, Higbee has seen 20 targets in the first two games, hauling in 12 of them for 110 yards. It’s not setting the world ablaze, but then again, unless you have Kelce or Andrews you’ve been disappointed so far, plus they play Arizona who just gave up the TE2 spot to Waller last week.