The fog is starting to clear. We’re three weeks into the season, and it’s becoming easier to differentiate between contenders and pretenders, flashes in the pan and legitimate emergence. Chaos reigns supreme in the early days leading to foolhardy optimism, like Robby Anderson (5/102/1 in Week 1, 4/48/0 since) being anything but dust, or premature death proclamations, like the greatly exaggerated reports of Derrick Henry’s demise. Over time, outliers regress (or ascend) to the mean in most cases, and that’s what we saw in Week 3.
One bad week could happen to anyone. Two bad weeks in a row is worrisome but not uncommon. Three in a row and the alarm bells start to sound. Last week, we gained some clarity across the league, which should be used to your advantage when constructing your Rumble Roster. While contrarian plays are always worth consideration, Rumble is all about playing the lineup with the most upside.
For example, Russell Wilson’s beginning tenure in Denver has been, in a word, bad. We’ve joked about Nathaniel Hackett’s brutal coaching debut, and while the Broncos are somehow 2-1, it’s been horrendously ugly. Last week, Denver and San Francisco squared off in a comically ugly 11-10 game, and while Wilson did orchestrate a game winning drive, he looked shaky most of the night, continuing to miss wide open receivers, often airmailing balls despite plenty of space and pocket protection.
In San Francisco, some thought Jimmy G’s sudden insertion to the lineup could mean big things for the pass catchers. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle figured to benefit the most, while Deebo Samuel’s already stellar Swiss army knife utilization would only grow with Trey Lance’s rushing removed for the equation. But Garoppolo looked similarly unimpressive.
Carolina is another team that does not look right, despite the ugly win against New Orleans – who also looks out of sorts. Baker Mayfield does not inspire any confidence, hurting both DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey, though McCaffrey’s usage was finally encouraging (25 carries, despite just 4 targets) – largely to take the ball out of Mayfield’s hand.
The same scenario played out with the Bears once again, and the formerly attractive upside of players like Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney is now long gone. The 2-1 Bears might be the worst 2-1 team in NFL history, and the team literally will do whatever the can to take the ball out of Justin Fields’ palm. Thankfully, Khalil Hebert looked fantastic in David Montgomery’s absence, which is something to keep an eye on.
But enough about the duds. Despite Week 3 being much lower scoring than Week 2 (the Week 3 Rumble winner put up 198.42 points compared to 243.93 the week prior), there was plenty to be excited over.
Lamar Jackson dominated once again, shredding the New England defense with 4 TDs through the air and another on the ground, while also eclipsing 100 yards on the ground for the second straight week.
At TE, Mark Andrews is proving he was worth every penny, clearly solidifying himself as Lamar Jackson’s favorite target. Baltimore’s dynamic offense, coupled with their suspect secondary, makes the Lamar – Andrews stack viable every week.
Khalil Herbert also dominated (shoutout to the 0.27% of you that started him), much to the chagrin of everyone that started David Montgomery (6.87%), hoping for a smash spot against a week Houston defensive unit.
Derrick Henry returned to form, largely due to his sudden emergence in the passing game. I’m not expecting major usage as a pass catching back, but it’s clear Tennessee needed to get the ball back into the hands of their best player.
DeVonta Smith’s Week 1 goose egg is ancient history, pacing Week 3’s WRs with a monster 8/169/1 week, and everyone’s favorite Raider WR, Mack Hollins (0.05% ownership!) went wild once again.
Finally, in Week 3, we saw something we hadn’t seen since the preseason – a winning lineup that didn’t employ a Hero. Our victor, Bentiboy52, faded much of the chalk and went with some gutsy calls. Kudos, Bentiboy!
Week 4 Double Rumble Wrinkle
Week 4 is a bit different. Not only is the now familiar TNF wrinkle in play, but we have a London game on Sunday, meaning that you’ll be able to get a sneak preview of TWO games before rosters lock. It’s also important to note that ALL DAY had a pack drop this week, meaning that several big-name rookies now have a Moment and can be played, including Drake London, Jahan Dotson, and Garret Wilson.
Tonight, we’ve got Dolphins @ Bengals, as Cincinnati debuts their long-awaited albino tiger threads.
This game has interesting potential, though I’m not ready to buy Tua’s emergence from a fantasy perspective. Somehow, despite looking like Sami Kapanen stumbling to the bench after a crushing Darcy Tucker hit over a decade ago, Tua didn’t have a concussion and came back for the 2nd half against Buffalo.
Tyreek Hill is streaky, but the TNF free preview makes him a solid upside play, despite a $44 low ask.
The same can be said about the remaining receivers on both teams, but I’m actually keeping an eye on Mike Gesicki and Hayden Hurst more than anyone. We saw David Njoku put together a solid performance on TNF last week, and the positional wasteland outside of Kelce and Andrews means that any spike week from another player immediately puts them into the viability category. Plus, both Hurst and Gesicki have affordable low asks ($10 and $9 respectively), and only one Moment, giving them plenty of upside potential in both Rumble and the market, while also providing a good floor if they don’t perform.
Chase Edmonds found paydirt twice last weekend but hasn’t had a ton of success elsewhere. However, his $14 floor coupled with the potential for goal line usage and the ability to catch the ball gives him similar upside to Hurst and Gesicki.
Joe Mixon has a higher low ask, currently sitting at $24, along with more Moments, so his market-based potential is capped. I like Mixon, but despite massive value, he has been incredibly inefficient, including a poor showing against the Jets. He’s also a bit banged up, and despite being the 3rd most owned back last week, it hasn’t materialized for Joe.
On Sunday morning, the Vikings and Saints square off at 9:30AM ET in London. Minnesota stole a victory against the Lions last week thanks to some ill-timed coaching decisions.
Kirk Cousins routinely busts in primetime games, and while an early morning stateside start might not qualify, I just don’t have much faith in him.
Dalvin Cook’s status is also up in the air, as he nurses an all-to-familiar shoulder injury. I’m not expecting much from him, if he even plays.
Justin Jefferson has had two incredibly disappointing games in a row, but the early start provides protection.
On the New Orleans side of the ball, Jameis Winston has been predictably erratic, but the biggest concern is Alvin Kamara’s inability to get out of neutral. Minnesota’s defense is weak, but New Orleans’ offense has been anemic thus far. If you think Kamara still has big play potential, which I do, he can be grabbed at a low ask of $22, down more than 26% from his high a week ago.
Sleepers and Stacks
Last week, we saw some great performances from players with very low ownership. Trevor Lawrence continues to prove that he’s the real deal and the Urban Meyer disaster is ancient history. We’re avoiding the obvious plays as usual – we all know Allen – Diggs, Lamar – Andrews, Mahomes – Kelce etc. will be hot commodities, but let’s look at places to differentiate your roster.
Cordarrelle Patterson In the 16th century, conquistador Ponce de León searched the new world for the Fountain of Youth. In 2022, Cordarrelle Patterson apparently found it. The Browns aren’t terrible against the run, the actually rank 11th in YPC, but they have given up 4 rushing TDs this season. Patterson shredded the 12th ranked YPC team – the New Orleans Saints – in Week 1, and decimated the Seattle Seahawks last week. 32 years old be damned, Patterson has looked electric, getting goal line carries and targets. It seems like the bottom is always just about to fall out, but it hasn’t.
Austin Ekeler Last week, the Los Angeles Chargers got stomped by the upstart Jaguars. Austin Ekeler had 4 carries for 5 yards. Yes, he caught dump off after dump off from Justin Herbert, partially salvaging his day with 8 grabs, but it was not a good showing for the Bolts. If this sounds like a reason to fade Ekeler and the Chargers, it’s actually the opposite. He was the 5th most owned RB last week at 16.71%, and I’d expect similar, if not even lower, ownership this week. Houston gets obliterated against the run, and this is a get right game for the whole team, Ekeler included.
Cooper Rush and Ceedee Lamb Cooper Rush has looked very competent in his two starts since Dak Prescott went down, and while it’s hard to take much away from Monday’s game against a brutal Giants team, he’s giving Cowboy fans a chance to believe the season isn’t over just yet. Ceedee Lamb dropped a can of corn for an easy TD, but then made one of the best catches of the year to win the game in the 4th quarter. This one is a bit of a dart throw, both because the Commanders are terrible, and because Dallas is still keen to rely heavily on Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard in the backfield, as they try to simplify the playbook for Rush. Nonetheless, there’s some smoke here, let’s see if it turns to fire.
Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk Let’s keep going back to the well! Lawrence has looked great, as he shredded the Chargers last week. Philadelphia’s defense is stout, but the Lions put up 35 points in Week 1 and I think the Jaguars are closer to being legitimate than people are willing to give them credit for. James Robinson has also been spectacular and is an absolutely viable play at $12 if you think the Jags might try to emulate Detroit’s attack in Week 1.
Rhamondre Stevenson We said Damien Harris was a solid play last week, but Stevenson stole the show. With Mac Jones highly questionable and Brian Hoyer likely under center, New England could rely heavily on their run game, something Green Bay has struggled with, despite a solid performance against the decimated Bucs last week. Stevenson can catch the ball out of the backfield and take goal line carries. He could easily take a back seat to Harris in this game, but the upside is there and ownership will be miniscule.
Diontae Johnson The Steelers offense is capped by the fact that Mitchell Trubisky is terrible, but despite his poor play through 3 games, Johnson is averaging 7 catches a week. Little needs to be said about the Jets defensive woes – the made the Bengals offensive line look competent last week and made Jacoby Brissett look like Bernie Kosar the week prior, so the upside is there. No one is going to want a part of this game, which means ownership will be in the low single digits once again – he was played in a mere 1.23% of lineups last week.
Value Plays and Other Buys
Many of the best options might already be priced out of your range, but there’s plenty of Rumble viable players that can be grabbed on the market for affordable prices.
QBs
Kyler Murray, $11 – With S2 Moments now on the market, you can capitalize on even more affordable pieces, starting with Kyler Murray for a cool $11. No, Kliff Kingsbury isn’t exactly running a master class in the desert and Kyler has been inconsistent, but the price tag has major upside potential, especially when coupled with his continued low usage.
Jameis Winston, $12 – One day the Saints will get it together…one day…right?
RBs
James Robinson, $12 – Robinson looks spectacular coming off the injury, and has put together three solid weeks in a row.
Najee Harris, $12 – I don’t love what’s going on with Najee Harris. Between the mysterious Lisfranc injury an uninspiring Steelers offense, it’s not the Black and Yellow of old. Nonetheless, Harris is the bell cow and they have a winnable game against a brutal Jets team.
Aaron Jones, $14 – Jones is always hit or miss, especially with AJ Dillon also in the backfield. But his low ask is down more than 26% over the past few days after a pedestrian outing against the Bucs, making him a good buy-low target.
WRs
D.J. Chark, $7 – Chark might not set the world on fire, but he’s literally the cheapest WR option in Rumble. For a guy that is a #2 WR option on a high-powered offense, you could do much worse, especially if you’re just starting out.
Darnell Mooney, $10 – The Bears passing game is a sick joke, but Mooney still has a ton of talent. It can literally only go up from here…well, I guess it could stay the same, sad joke, but where’s the fun in that?
Kadarius Toney, $10 – This one is more of a stash, and his inability to get on the field has been reflected in his price. But, with the season-ending injury to Sterling Shepard and Brian Daboll’s continued hide out at Secaucus High School, Toney might see his role expanding sooner rather than later, as much as the Giants might not want to give it to him. With a floor of $7 across the WR positional group, Toney’s upside outweighs the bust potential.
TEs
Albert Okwuegbunam, $8 – Coming into the year, few TEs were gaining as much hype as Albert O. So far, it hasn’t materialized, as the Broncos have looked comically bad despite a winning record. But as fun as it is to continuously dunk on Hackett and Wilson, you have to figure that things will come together. Albert O only had two targets last week, but the talent is there.
T.J. Hockenson, $10 – Hockenson finally got into the endzone last week, and while he has yet to emerge has a top TE, he still has potential. Goff and Hockenson have yet to develop chemistry, but the Lions love to chuck it.
George Kittle, $12 – Kittle made his 2022 debut last week and put up a 4/28/0 clip. It doesn’t sound like much, but it was good enough for a top 10 TE showing in Rumble last week. Jimmy G isn’t anything special, but he and Kittle have succeeded together in the past and he’s still one of the best options in the game.
