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Week 4 Recap

Week 4 was unfortunately headlines by injuries. From Tua Tagovailoa’s scary scene in Cincinnati to Javonte Williams’ devastating season-ending mishap in Vegas, the all-too-familiar injury bug popped up in full force. Running backs were particularly banged up, as Alvin Kamara unexpectedly missed the London game, D’Andre Swift sat for the Lions, Cordarrelle Patterson was placed on IR, and Jonathan Taylor is nursing a high ankle sprain. All of these situations will play into the Week 5 strategy, and we’re here to break it down for you.

Week 4 also brought the return of offensive output, resulting in significantly higher Rumble scores. Please allow me to take a moment to bask in the glory of my Austin Ekeler pick (and ignore the Trevor Lawrence/Christian Kirk stack option), which was present in our Week 4 winner’s lineup. Not only did TheJeezus play Ekeler, he donned the Hero designation, leading the roster to victory. Perhaps the biggest story from last week was T.J. Hockenson’s explosion (also present in the victorious lineup). Despite a juicy matchup between Seattle and Detroit, Hockenson’s ownership was only 5.25%, and that’s with both Swift and Amon Ra St. Brown on the sidelines. TE has been notoriously finicky this season, where anyone but Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews have spelled danger, but Hockenson finally emerged.

In addition to Hockenson’s career game, we saw a return to form for some big-name receivers, namely Justin Jefferson (10/147/0), and Cooper Kupp (14/122/0).

Jared Goff led the way at QB with 34.22 points. But, the Detroit gunslinger doesn’t have a Common Moment, only possessing a Rare, and he was not played in a single lineup! From there, Geno Smith, the obvious next choice, put up the second best showing with 31.70 points, the only other QB to crack the 30-point mark. Unlike Goff, Smith actually was played in lineups…0.68% to be exact. Russell Wilson was the third best QB play on the week, finally rounding into form to an extent, but his poor play through the first four weeks scared off the field, resulting in just 0.82% ownership. The highest owned QBs were Josh Allen (29%), Lamar Jackson (17%), Jalen Hurts (10%) and Patrick Mahomes (6%), with only Josh Allen cracking the top 5, snagging the last spot on the list.

Ekeler led the way at RB, a chalky play despite his early-season struggles, resulting in 34.9 points and a 15% ownership clip. From there, things got murky, with Josh Jacobs emerging from the dead and Miles Sanders putting his lackluster 2021 campaign far behind him. From an ownership perspective, Jonathan Taylor’s disappointing season kept chugging along. He had a 34% ownership in Week 4, but was outscored by the likes of Kenneth Gainwell, Latavius Murray, and Michael Carter, registering 4.30 points and the RB31 slot last week, along with a potential injury. Saquon Barkley looked terrific yet again, but he only snagged two passes and didn’t get into the endzone, limiting his otherwise great outing.

Mark Andrews went down as the bust of the week, sinking nearly 31% of lineups with a disappointing 3.5 points at the onesie TE spot. Andrews was by far the #1 TE in terms of ownership, nearly doubling the #2 play, Travis Kelce. Kelce boomed with a 9/92/1 line, putting up 24.2 points, but the other top 5 plays, Darren Waller, George Kittle, and Kyle Pitts, all busted once again. If it wasn’t obvious, hitting on the TE spot is likely the most difficult and therefore most important when building a Rumble Roster, clearly a task easier said than done.

Defensively, San Francisco won the day, proving they really are legit. The 49ers decimated Matt Stafford and the Rams, capped by a pick-6 late in the 4th quarter to seal the deal. The Giants predictably stomped the Bears, more an indictment on Chicago than an endorsement of New York, and Philadelphia once again put together a stout showing.

Week 5 – Another Double Rumble Wrinkle

Tonight, the Colts and Broncos square off in a game for equestrian supremacy, followed by the Giants and Packers on Sunday morning. Jonathan Taylor is OUT and his absence could open things up for Nyheim Hines. While the price tag is still very attractive, currently $17, it appears the field is on this one. Since Monday, Hines low ask has risen from $7, so it’s not exactly an under the radar move at this point. The only other player on Indianapolis I’m particularly interested in is Michael Pittman, but as we saw last week, his upside is capped by Matt Ryan, who is looking increasingly dusty as the season goes on.

On the flip side of the coin, the Denver Broncos played their best offensive game last week. Unfortunately, it coincided with a devastating injury to Javonte Williams and a defensive breakdown. But hey, for Rumble purposes, offense is good! Russell Wilson finally looked a little better IRL, and his box score reflected it. Melvin Gordon has been awful this year, making Javonte Williams’ injury even worse, as the latter seemed primed for bigger workloads. Now, we’re stuck with a Gordon – Mike Boone committee. It will be interesting to see if Denver leans into their weapons at WR and TE, or if their early season coaching woes continue and they go all New Orleans Saints and ride the aging backs to mediocrity. 

The Giants / Packers game is equally meh in my eyes. Saquon Barkley looks like the player from 2018, and 3-1 Giants (lol) will pepper him with targets and touches, especially because Green Bay is vulnerable on the ground. Aside from that, the Giants WR is…well, not worth starting, to put it lightly, and despite Daniel Jones’ ability to run the ball, they’re just not going to score enough points for him to be worth starting. In Green Bay, AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones could each go off, but they tend to cannibalize one another’s upside. Their two most exciting WR options, Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, are both rookies and don’t have an ALL DAY Moment yet.

On the main slate, I’m keeping an eye on the Lions / Patriots game, and am especially interested in Damien Harris/Rhamondre Stevenson, depending on how you want to play it. Mac Jones is out, and it looks like backup Brian Hoyer will be as well. Detroit’s defense is offensive, and I could easily see a Belichick special incoming. Remember the Jonas Gray game from 2014, of last year’s Wind Bowl against Buffalo? Think that, but with Bailey Zappe under center. We’ll have the monitor the weather across the league, but Week 5 is shaping up to have some more shootout potential than last week. Nine games have an o/u of at least 45, led by the Kansas City / Las Vegas MNF game, which always seems to be an entertaining matchup.  There are less obvious slam dunks in this week due to the matchups, which makes the need for shrewd plays even more important. Don’t be afraid to go away from the chalk, especially at RB and TE.

Sleepers and Stacks

As always, we’re avoiding the obvious plays, because where’s the fun in that? 

• Damien Harris/Rhamondre Stevenson – We said it before and we’ll say it again. The game went to OT, but last week’s contest between the Packers and Patriots saw Harris and Stevenson rack up a combined 32 carries and 152 yards on the ground, along with 5 receptions for 21 yards. It is possible that New England will need to put up major points to reel in Detroit’s high octane offense, but with Zappe at QB the Patriots will do whatever they can to simplify the playbook and keep Detroit’s playmakers off the field. 
• Dalvin Cook – Tons of volume? Check. Pedestrian start to the season? Check. Ownership not yet topping 3% this season? Check. Mouth-watering matchup? Check. The Bears are who we thought they are…terrible. The team has given up, by far, the most yards on the ground this season (744) and Cook has gotten off to a slow start. He’s getting chances and putting up some yards, but hasn’t found paydirt often, making this a great potential play. 
• James Robinson – Robinson came back to earth last week after a fantastic start to the season, largely a function of sloppy conditions in Philadelphia and a stout defensive matchup. This week, Jacksonville will try to get back on track against a Houston team that just got torched by Austin Ekeler in a get right game. Trevor Lawrence isn’t normally one to sling it 50 times a game, and positive game script could put Robinson in a strong position. 
• Terry McLaurin and Carson Wentz – We all know Carson Wentz is gross, but hear me out. The Titans are giving up the 5^th most YPG in the air, and have allowed 10 passing TDs, tied for the most in the league. Jahan Dotson is going to miss some time, and last week’s matchup against Dallas was an expected dud, but the buy low potential is here, even with Wentz’s limited IRL potential. 
• Dallas Goedert – TEs have lit up the Cardinals this year – even Tommy Tremble had a decent outing last week for Carolina’s pathetic offense. Arizona has allowed 28/341/3 to opposing TEs this year, with nearly all metrics ranking near the top of the charts. Philadelphia’s great defense could mute the potential for a shootout and take the ball out of Hurts’ hand, but this is still one to look at.

Value Plays

Many of the best options might already be priced out of your range, but there’s plenty of Rumble viable players that can be grabbed on the market for affordable prices.

QBs

• Kyler Murray, $10 – Murray had a strong game last week, and his S2 Moment is just $10. Despite the team’s struggles, it’s worth a watch.
• Geno Smith, $10 – Seriously. Oh and he has the highest completion percentage in NFL history through 4 games for a player that has attempted at least 125 passes. Strange times indeed. 

RBs

• Chase Edmonds, $8 – It’s been a disappointing season so far for the heavily hyped Edmonds, but at $8, the floor can only drop so much.
• Najee Harris, $9 – Now’s the time. Kenny might not be the savior, but it can’t get much worse than Mitch Trubisky. If Harris and the Steelers were ever going to gain some traction, it’s now.

WRs

• Robert Woods, $8 – With Treylon Burks set to miss time with turf toe, Woods slides back into the de facto WR1 role for the Titans. The ceiling is capped, but at $8, we’re taking a swing. 
• Dionte Johnson, $9 – See Najee Harris. There’s been some talk of George Pickens supplanting Johnson as the top dog in Pittsburgh, but I’m not buying it yet and want to see what Pickens – Johnson can do.

TEs

• George Kittle, $9 – Kittle was predominantly on blocking duty Monday night, but like we mentioned last week, he’s still one of the best TEs in the game. If you look at his price chart, Kittle was $9 last week before spiking to $15, so there could be another opportunity to swing trade.
• Tyler Higbee, $9 – So much for the Allen Robinson hype train. Higbee has had at least 4 receptions and 39 yards each game this year and has topped 60 yards in the last three.