Coming into the season, few fans would point to the NFC East as being the crème-de-la-crème of the NFL. Yet six weeks into the season, here we are. Perhaps more baffling, the Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks technically sit atop their divisions, proving that “any given Sunday” is more than just an over-the-top Pacino flick from 1999.

Week 6 Recap

After a couple huge weeks with massive scores, Week 6 was a reversion to simpler times. Josh Allen led QB ownership by an enormous margin and didn’t disappoint, but our winner, Caleb2319 hit the nail on the head, not only playing the highest scoring QB, my man Joe Burrow, but also throwing him into the hero spot, propelling him to victory by the thinnest of margins.

One thing that’s becoming apparent in Rumble is that contrarian plays mixed in with chalk don’t seem to be particularly popular, despite the potential for huge gains. It makes sense of course, if you have Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, and Brandon Aiyuk in your collection, why would you play Aiyuk over Kupp, even knowing that Kupp has exceeded 50% ownership almost every week, including an insane 58% clip last week? With only one bite at the apple, players are going for the jugular with juggernaut lineups. And while the predictable plays have often hit, we’re still seeing a ton of opportunity with high upside plays that may be a little less glamorous. 

For example, we’ve been all over Rhamondre Stevenson the last two weeks, and sure enough, he was the RB1 last week, dominating a beleaguered Cleveland squad. Despite his respectable ownership, coming in at 15%, he was still only the 5^th most played RB, a far cry from Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkely, both who more than doubled his ownership. It’ll be interesting to see if owners start mixing and matching a little more as time goes on, or if the chalk plays in stout collections will continue being deployed together. One good fade and contrarian replacement could lead to a big payday. 

Unlike Week 5, Week 6 had a few QB surprises. Allen dominated in a revenge game, but Matt Ryan and Trevor Lawrence took home the QB3 and QB4 rankings, with 0.2% and 0.48% ownership, respectively. Patrick Mahomes, Allen’s dueling gunslinger, rounded out the top 5, but only had a 6% ownership – a bit of a surprise. More notably, Lamar Jackson endured an epic implosion, throwing away a victory against the Giants with a horrible late INT that was followed up by a game ending sack and fumble.

At WR, Cooper Kupp disappointed most of the field, but if you disappoint everyone, isn’t it kind of like disappointing no one? We’ll have to leave that Kafkaesque parable for the players, but his “disappointing” performance, a mere 7/80/0 clip, wasn’t enough to sink our champ’s lineup, simply because his ownership was so insanely high. Stefon Diggs, however, did not disappoint, putting up a massive outing en route to the WR2 slot. Tyreek Hill had another great game despite the QB situation, followed by Aiyuk, and Michael Pittman. It’s worth noting that after Hill, who only had a 3% ownership, only one of the next top 8 WRs clocked in above 1.4% ownership, and that was A.J. Brown at 2. 

The RB and WR positions flipped flopped in Week 6, with the chalky plays hitting on RB for the most part, while many missed at WR. The five most owned RBs all ended in the top six spots – the only miss being Nick Chubb, and the only positive outlier being Breece Hall, who continues to impress. Stevenson, Ekeler, McCaffrey, Fournette, and Barkley all were solid plays, with only 6.8 points separating the RB1 from the RB6.

After a ridiculous Week 5, Travis Kelce was great yet again, but he was outdueled (and out-owned, slightly) by Mark Andrews…and Mike Gesicki! Gesicki rose from the dead like with a 6/69/2 explosion, taking home the TE1 crown in surprising fashion thanks to Teddy Bridgewater’s return and riverboat gambler approach. From there, George Kittle had his best game of the season, and Hunter Henry showed up in New England. As always, the ownership at TE was dominated by Andrews and Kelce, making up nearly 60% of the entire field, with Kittle contributing another 10%. 

Defensively, it was none other than the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS dominating the show, obliterating a Packers offense at home, capped by Sauce Gardiner donning the Cheese Head, much to Allan Lazard’s chagrin. Amazingly, Seattle and Atlanta were the DST2 and DST3 teams on the week, with New England and Minnesota rounding out the top 5.

Week 7 Rumble Wrinkle

Finally we got some Thursday Night Football fireworks! Al Michaels was happy and Rumble players should be too. There are two legitimate Rumble starters to consider from last night’s game:

• Andy Dalton: It wasn’t pretty (the two Pick Sixes, especially) but the Red Rocket put up 29.54 points. That’s nearly 7 points higher than our projection for the next best Week 7 QB (Lamar Jackson at 22.96). Dalton will be an easy lock for a lot of players.
• Arizona DST+: Those aforementioned Pick Sixes helped the Cardinals to 20 points, an astounding total for a 42-34 game. Another lock for many.

The Rest of Week 7

Last week, aside from the Bills – Chiefs and Cardinals – Seahawks games, most matchups had relatively low projected point totals. The Bills game lived up to the hype, but the shootout in Seattle never materialized. This week, with byes in full force, we have another batch of predominantly low scoring projections, with the Seahawks – Chargers game the only one projected above 50 points.

Justin Herbert and the Chargers have looked all sorts of wrong this season, going back to their dismantling at the paws of the Jags, but they were able to eke out a win against Denver on Monday. Unfortunately, no one saw the game because those watching were forced into a life-preserving coma so that they didn’t need to witness ineptitude on both sides of the ball, highlighted by Denver’s spirited 2 yard runs up the gut out of the shotgun formation for the entire 2^nd half. Yawn. Nonetheless, the Chargers still boast plenty of firepower, Keenan Allen is back, and you’ll see I’m putting some faith in a resurgence.

Over the past few weeks, I’ve been fading Tampa’s passing offense everywhere, but this might be the week Tom Brady and the Bucs decide enough is enough. After a humiliating loss to the Steelers, Tampa is approaching that “now or never” territory. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have both been okay in recent weeks, but their inability to get into the endzone has been frustrating. They play a putrid Carolina team with a reanimated corpse at QB (just kidding, it’s PJ Walker…but it could be Jacob Eason) and Christian McCaffrey shipped off to the 49ers, so there’s always the potential that Tampa sleepwalks to a win the same way the Rams did last week, but this one is there for the picking. 

Stacks and Sleepers

As always, we’re avoiding the obvious plays, because where’s the fun in that?

• Tom Brady & Mike Evans: I’m not big on finding obscure stats and jerry rigging it into a projection, but Mike Evans has scored in three straight games against Carolina, averaging nearly 7 catches and 90 yards in those games. That, coupled with Brady’s rage, could propel the Bucs to the offense everyone has been wanting for weeks. If you’re more interested in Godwin for his PPR chops, that’s a fine pivot too. The only downside here is going to be Carolina’s complete inability to score, which could lead to a redux of last week.
• Justin Herbert & Mike Williams: After two huge games, Williams disappeared, posting just two catches for 17 yards (which was actually better than his Week 1 AND Week 3 performances, amazingly). Williams is about as boom or bust as there is, but if you guess right, it means he’s going off and probably taking Herbert with him. Both players have had surprisingly low ownership numbers throughout the year, and despite the juicy matchup there is a good chance the numbers will end up lower than expected due to the inconsistency, making them a prime stacking duo. Also worth considering is Gerald Everett, who has been solid this season and plays a Seahawks team giving up over 100 yards/game to TEs this season.
• Breece Hall: Breece Hall simply looks fantastic. The matchup is terrible and will likely be a slugfest, with a solid Broncos defense and a terrible Broncos offense capping the upside. However, Hall has been great and has seen his workload expand every week, culminating with a 20-carry effort against Green Bay and his first 100 yard game. Hall will have low ownership, both due to the matchup and because of more attractive options like Ekeler, Saquon, and McCaffery, but Hall’s electricity is getting hard to ignore.
• Josh Jacobs: What a strange one this is. Not only has Josh Jacobs been serviceable, he’s been downright dominant in his last two games. Jacobs has averaged nearly 300 yards on the ground, along with five catches in three straight games. And, those were games against Tennessee, Kansas City, and Denver, no slouches. This week, he gets Houston, who the Raiders should, and need to, destroy. 
• Hayden Hurst: We called Hurst out last week and he disappointed. So, let’s try again! Playing his former team, Hurst will be going up against a Falcons defense that has allowed some huge numbers to TEs this year. Atlanta has surprisingly been able to score points through committee, which could set this game up for an under the radar shootout.